This analysis updates the deficit projections of the AAPS in a simple fashion to indicate the general magnitude of the fiscal crisis that is at our doorstep.

The AAPS Budget adopted in June for FY 2010 accompanied by a planning budget for FY 2011 projected deficits of $2 million and $8 million, respectively, if the programmatic mix were to remain comparable from FY 2010 to FY 2011. The budget assumed no change in the foundation allowance per student from FY 2009 through FY 2011.

As shown in detail in “State School Aid Fund Budget Continues To Worsen,” a companion piece in the Data Bank series, the state will likely cut spending per pupil by at least $247 per student in FY 2010 and also cut categorical programs significantly. The impact on the AAPS budget would be a loss of revenue of about $4.5 million in FY 2009 and a deficit of $6.5 million if current programs were maintained.

Turning to FY 2011, the cited analysis indicates another cut of $180 per student is likely. Projected revenue of $188.7 million in the planning budget would fall by $6.5 million due to the lower revenue base from FY 2010 and another $3 million due to the additional cut in FY 2011. Projected revenue would fall to $179.2 million. The expenditure estimate consistent with maintaining programs for FY 2011 is $196.7 million.

The projected deficit for FY 2011, which reflects recent, discouraging developments in likely state appropriations is $17.5 million – much larger than the projection in the budget. The updated projected deficit is also considerably larger than the projected revenue from the proposed millage. All those concerned with the quality of education must continue actions to promote reform at the state level as well as helpful actions at the local level.

While this exposition reveals a major problem, it also makes evident an opportunity. All public school districts in Michigan are about to come face-to-face with the dire consequences of an outmoded state financial structure. Only the ten districts within WISD are actively working on a shared local solution to alleviate partially the problem. Passage of the millage would protect an island of good schools in an ocean of despair. People and businesses would seek safe harbor in WISD – to the benefit of businesses and homeowners alike in WISD.